Simple Baseline Methods
On a trend the mean method scored MAE 15.8737 against drift’s 2.2367. On a seasonal series, seasonal naive won at 1.7016 against naive’s 3.0688.
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Relative accuracy
Removing half the remaining errors reads as 1.5000, 1.2143, 1.0556 and 1.0051 depending only on the majority class.
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Baseline Heuristics
Always predicting the majority class scored 0.9204 accuracy against the model’s 0.9654 — and 0.0000 F1 against 0.7389.
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Baseline
Understand Baseline through clear definitions, worked examples, and the conditions needed to interpret a business measure.