Marginal Likelihood
Against a fixed-rate model the Bayes factor reads 0.7758 under one prior and 1.0519 under another. The direction flips.
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Bayesian Stopping Rules
Futility at 0.20 abandons 59.51% of no-effect experiments; the median sample across all runs is 500. The simulated power falls by about 15 points with a real lift.
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Posterior Probability
Posterior probability measures a specified event under a prior and likelihood. It differs from a p-value and needs a decision-relevant effect threshold.
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Bayesian Sequential Testing
One look at the end calls B better 5.03% of the time on identical variants. Looking every twenty users: 27.96%.