Posterior probability of uplift
A direct answer to how likely it is that the treatment helped — and how much less comfortable that answer becomes once a threshold that matters is attached.
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Gaussian Processes (GPs)
Standard deviation of 0.1123 where observations were dense, 0.9620 in the gap between them, and 1.0046 beyond all the data.
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The Bayesian Workflow
A distribution over parameters costs a prior, a sampler, and two diagnostics that can both be wrong.