Thompson Sampling
Thompson sampling draws a plausible success rate for each arm from its posterior and plays the largest draw. Uncertain arms get tried in proportion to how likely they are to be best.
Thompson sampling draws a plausible success rate for each arm from its posterior and plays the largest draw. Uncertain arms get tried in proportion to how likely they are to be best.
Beta(0.8, 0.2), Beta(4, 1) and Beta(400, 100) all have mean 0.8000. P(0.7 < p < 0.9) is 0.1512, 0.4160 and 1.0000.
A prior specifies assumptions before the analyzed data. Its concentration, parameterization, predictive implications, and sensitivity all affect the posterior.