Optimism Bias
Correct systematic forecast error using comparable evidence. Show how mitigation, its cost, and remaining uncertainty change the estimate and reserve.
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True Conversion Rate
The unobservable rate behind the number in the dashboard. What defines it, and why the textbook interval around it is not as safe as it looks.
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True Mean (Population Mean, μ)
The population average an experiment is trying to learn: fixed, unobserved, and defined only once the population itself is.
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Sample Mean
The average of what you measured, standing in for the average you cannot. Unbiased, sensitive to outliers, and slower to behave than n over 30 suggests.
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Likelihood
Likelihood compares parameter values for fixed observations. Ratios, constants, log calculations, and model assumptions determine its interpretation.