Quantile Forecasts
Asymmetric costs have an asymmetric answer. If being short costs three times as much as being long, the target is not the mean.
Asymmetric costs have an asymmetric answer. If being short costs three times as much as being long, the target is not the mean.
A quantile level selects a position in the outcome distribution. Exact exceedance probabilities require continuity; discrete outcomes can have ties.
At p = 0.5 it is just absolute error. Away from the median it weights misses unevenly, which is what makes a quantile the thing being estimated.