Value Hypothesis

A value hypothesis states how a proposed change is expected to improve an outcome for someone. It is a claim to investigate, not a measured benefit or a formal statistical hypothesis test by itself.

Make the assumptions visible

Suppose 120 eligible invoices per week each save three minutes of search but require one additional minute of checking. The conditional net estimate is 120 times two minutes: four hours per week. If only 60 invoices per week qualify, it becomes two hours per week before other costs.

The estimate depends on eligibility and the assumed effect, not just total volume.

Check the whole consequence

Observe correction work, failed cases, maintenance, and effects on people receiving the output. Freed time does not automatically reduce payroll expense, and a faster task may not shorten the approval cycle. Compare the proposal with the current method and simpler alternatives. Revise or reject the hypothesis when evidence contradicts it.

References

• GOV.UK: User Research in Discovery